Quick Thoughts on the Divisional Playoffs

A few quick thoughts on the 2005 divisional playoffs.

• The Patriots outplayed Denver on Saturday. They played well enough to win. But the Patriots know as well as anyone that you can't turn the ball over the like that and win the game, especially at this level. Every time it seemed like they had the game under control, some would drop the ball. Muffing a punt? Oh my.
• Those who insist on calling the Patriot run a dynasty are already proclaiming the end of the dynasty. Well, the Steelers lost playoff games in the middle of their dynasty. Dallas lost in the middle of theirs. Missing out on Super Bowls XI, XII, and XXIX didn't derail those dynasties. I do think this is the end of the Patriot run, for a little while at least. The defense revolves around the linebackers, and the linebackers are getting older. One, Johnson, retired last year. Can Willie and Tedy be far behind?
• Way to go Pittsburgh! My one failed pick of the playoffs, but I don't mind. The difference between this Steeler team and all of the other Steeler playoff teams in the Cowher era is at quarterback. Previous teams has stellar defense and brutal running games, but lacked when the QB had to step back and pass. That's been true ever since Bradshaw retired. Between Terry and Ben, the best QB they've had is Neil O'Donnell. I'm not knocking Neil, but he was not someone you wanted to rely on to win a game. Manage the game, OK. Win, nope. With Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh finally has that mix of running and passing that can kill you again. The Colt game was one they would have lost in any previous year back to the Bradshaw days, because they would never have been able to mount that kind of passing attack. Full disclosure for anyone who might think I know what I'm talking about vis à vis personnel. When the Steelers took Ben, I thought it was a stupid move. They had Tommy Maddox! What did they need another QB for? Right out of the "Get Your Story Straight" commercials.
  
• I've railed on this subject before, but teams have to learn they cannot back off an opponent, especially a very good opponent, to sit on a lead for a long period. The Steelers come out attacking on both offense and defense and build a 21-3 lead, in complete control of the game. Then what do they do? Go conservative. Stop blitzing, run every down regardless of down and distance. And what happens? What should have been a comfortable win, and a statement game at that, turns into a nailbiter which all too easily could have gone the Colts' way. If Ben doesn't make that tackle on the fumble return at the end, Indy wins. Like I said before, "If a game plan has gotten you to the brink of blowing out an opponent, it should be obvious that it's working, so keep going!"
• Carolina won, as expected, and will face the Seahawks in the NFC title game, as expected. But it was a costly win, with Foster, Peppers, and other key players going down. They may all end up playing, but I'm not sure they will be at 100%, and that will drag the Panther game down a bit.
• 2005 is 1997 redux. In the 1997 conference finals, it was Cowher's Steelers against Shanahan's Broncos to succeed New England as AFC champions, and a Mike Holmgren team (Packers) vying for the NFC title. In case anyone forgets, Holmgren and Shanahan won their respective conference titles and did battle in Super Bowl 32.
• Chicago made a better game of it than I would have thought. Grossman certainly did what he could, but why did the Bears not stick with the run? It's their bread and butter, and Jones had pretty good success doing it. It's not like they were getting blown out. Well, by Bear standards, I guess they were. I understand wanting to change tendencies and do things the opponent does not expect. But ultimately you have to go with what works, and running the ball worked for Chicago.
• Update The Colt performance is a perfect demonstration of what I tried to say in my predictions. One significant difference between a good and a great team is the abilty to adapt. The Colts came into the game with a game plan. Lots of spread formations. Typical Colt ball. This plan was not working thanks to the heavy Pittsburgh blitz. Rather than adapt their offense to bring more max protect formations, they continued trying to make their plan work. On this topic, I always think back to Super Bowl 38. Both the Patriots and the Panthers came in with very similar game plans: heavy dose of running and big defensive push up front to disrupt the other team's running game. This lead to a pretty boring start to the game. Neither offense did much of anything. Then, both teams adapted to the situation, realizing that, with all the defensive emphasis on the run game, things would be open in the secondary, so they both opened up the passing game. This transformed a boring defensive game into an exciting offensive game which either team could have legitimately win. That's the key to New England's run: they were never irrevocably tied to a game plan and could adapt to whatever worked to win the game. Indy did not show that ability against the Steelers (who on the other hand went totally against their offensive grain to bring a pass-heavy attack). The more imaginative team won.
• Update New England must be kicking themselves. Not only did they play well enough to win the game, then threw it away, but if they had won they would be hosting the AFC title game with the Steelers having taken care of the Colts for them. Everything fell right for the Patriots to go to their third straight Super Bowl, and they threw the game away.